If you have been paying attention to the coffee world lately, you might have noticed something worrying. The cost of green coffee has been climbing fast. Not just a small rise, but sharp jumps that have caught a lot of people off guard.

As someone who spends every day surrounded by coffee, I want to explain what is going on in plain English. No jargon, no scare tactics. This affects everyone, whether you are a roaster, a café owner, or just someone who loves a proper cup in the morning.

The Main Driver: US and Brazil Tariffs

Green coffee prices have jumped sharply in recent weeks — not because of speculation or hype, but because of real pressure on supply.

Brazil grows around 30% of the world’s coffee, and the United States is one of its biggest buyers. Recently, the US slapped heavy tariffs on a wide range of Brazilian imports, and green coffee got caught in the middle.

Rather than pay the extra costs, many US buyers are cutting back on Brazilian contracts and looking to other origins instead. That sudden rush has pushed up prices from places like Colombia, Honduras, and beyond.

And just as tariffs hit, Brazil has also been battling hot, dry weather right at the start of its critical flowering season. The country’s largest Arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, had no rainfall for two full weeks, which triggered a buying frenzy on the New York market.

Other Pressures Adding Fuel to the Fire

It’s not just Arabica feeling the squeeze. Robusta prices have also surged, supported by:

• Low stock levels
• A weaker Dollar
• And prolonged dry weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the world’s largest Robusta-growing region

Vietnam’s new crop starts in November, and many expect a shortfall. That fear has kept Robusta prices near their upper range.

What It Means for Roasters Like Us

For small, quality-focused roasters like Hormozi Coffee, this is a tough balancing act.

We don’t buy container-loads like industrial brands. We buy smaller lots, often from producers and co-operatives we’ve known for years. We pay fair prices to make sure they can keep growing the kind of beautiful coffee we all love.

When the cost of green beans suddenly jumps by 30–50%, we face hard choices:

• Absorb the increase and hope prices calm down
• Raise our own prices slightly (never popular)
• Or buy cheaper coffee, which would mean lowering our standards

We’ll never compromise on quality. So far, we’ve chosen to absorb as much of the increase as we can. But if high prices continue, they will eventually ripple through the whole chain. It’s not about greed — it’s simple maths.

What It Means for Coffee Lovers

You might start to notice prices for beans, subscriptions, or café drinks creeping up. That’s not because anyone’s trying to take advantage. It’s because the raw ingredient has become far more expensive.

Coffee is a handmade agricultural product, grown by real people in often tough conditions. Every bag represents months of work from farm to roastery to your cup.

If the price rises a little, it helps keep the entire supply chain alive and fair

Looking Ahead

Tariffs can be lifted as quickly as they’re imposed, and hopefully, common sense will win out soon. Even if they disappear, the pressures of climate change and rising production costs aren’t going anywhere.

For us, it’s a reminder to keep building strong, direct relationships with farmers and to support sustainable production.

For you, it might mean your coffee costs a few pence more — but you’ll know everyone in the chain is being looked after properly.

Coffee brings people together, sparks ideas, and makes mornings brighter. Even when the market turns upside down, that part never changes.